Market Trends – An Interview with Rob Enderle

In this comprehensive Q&A with Rob Enderle, President of The Enderle Group, current trends in both the Mobile and High Definition Computing markets, with emphasize on new technologies and global changes, are highlighted. Rob shared his insights and knowledge with the VTF2005 Taipei audience in the Mobile Platforms Technology Track on June 1 and the High Definition Computing Technology Track on June 2.

Mobile Platforms

Q1: How do you know that the PC Market is becoming more Mobile?

Rob: We do a number of engagements with companies over the year and laptop deployments, as a percentage of total, have been spiking from 30% to 60% in many and pressure for similar spikes in companies with more conservative mobile targets is clearly increasing. People simply want to be more mobile.

Q2: What is holding back even broader Mobile deployments?

Rob: Cost and security concerns. Laptops still cost substantially more then desktop computers; they also break more frequently and are a higher theft risk.

Q3: What kinds of Mobile Computer offerings enjoy the greatest success?

Rob: Those that address the security and cost concerns while providing an adequate level of reliability and services. Customers are generally looking for a complete solution which includes an attractively priced reliable product and a services component that covers most expected problems. The better a solution assures that an employee will not be stranded with problematic laptop while meeting cost expectations the more attractive that solution becomes.

Q4: What do you see are the most important technology trends in the Mobile Computing Market?

Rob: Broadband WAN, laptop computers are increasingly worthless if they aren't connected and, as WiFi, 3G, and WiMax technologies proliferate laptop computers will increasingly become attractive.

Airline networking, thought of as the next really big thing this allows people traveling on planes to connect to their networks and work more productively while traveling. It should both increase laptop and ticket sales.

TPM, the Trusted Platform Module is critical to the future of the protected laptop computer. Better securing that laptop overall is one of the most important trends in the segment.

Fingerprint recognition, in conjunction with the TPM technologies that eliminate the need for passwords and better secure the platform make it immensely more attractive in an increasingly hostile world.

The shrinking laptop, products like the 12” wide screen Dell and even the OQO are providing computing power in ever decreasing usable sizes.

Battery life is increasing pending the release of effective fuel cells firms are looking at ever more creative ways to increase the duration of off grid power.

Q5: How do you think Taiwan 's role in the mobile PC industry will evolve as we enter the next phase of the digital era?

Rob: Perhaps I should answer how it should evolve. Currently Taiwan is seen leader in low cost high volume high quality manufacturing. However, to be a leader, it must also lead in design and innovation. Right now Taiwan isn't considered a leader in these two areas and if it wishes to remain a top producer of this technology, particularly in the face of China 's massive manufacturing and urban improvements it must step up its efforts to become innovative and increasingly create market leading product ideas on its own. In the next few years the market will undoubtedly move to massive new technologies, if Taiwan isn't driving those technologies it runs the risk of being made obsolete by them.

High Definition Computing

Q1: In 2004, we saw a number of changes on the High Definition platform such as PCI Express, DDR-II, and even BTX. How do you think these transitions are progressing?

Rob: Surprisingly well, of the outlook briefings I've had over the last several weeks all have substantial BTX components and all supported PCI Express, DDR-II is mixed due to perceptions of price/performance but the trend is clearly in that direction even if the current support for this memory type isn't particularly strong.

Q2: In 2005 what technologies do you think will define the High Definition platform?

Rob: Low noise through either fanless or large diameter low velocity BTX like designs. Noise has been found increasingly unacceptable for HD platforms and is already being aggressively eliminated.

Efficient, these systems are generally left on twenty four hours a day and seven days a week and electricity in much of the world is getting more expensive power efficiency is moving up the value chain as a result.

High Capacity, increasingly these machines are used to store media for consumption across the home 160GB to 1 Terabyte drives will continue to proliferate in this class.

AV Cased, increasingly HD Casing is looking more and more like AV equipment and being placed in AV racks.

Physics Engine, driven largely by HD gaming and the game console market physics engines will increasingly be built into HD PCs so that they can create more realistic virtual worlds.

Q3: What are the major challenges for the High Definition platform in 2005?

Rob: Content acquisition: Concerns over piracy will continue to make it difficult to acquire HD content, particularly that which comes from Cable services.

Mixed Service model, consumers expect a “set top box” class of service with an HD PC used for entertainment and continue to get a product vastly more complex then they want or need.

Customer Apathy, it is always difficult to move customers from products they currently use and like, like set top boxes, to more robust platforms like Media Center PCs.

Game Consoles are increasingly infringing into this space and the new XBox360 is, in and of itself, an HD Computer.

Lack of Marketing, with every new product class comes a high marketing requirement; this requirement is currently not being met.

Q4: What do you think are the major requirements and expectations for someone going out to purchase a new Desktop PC?

Rob: Attractive, unlike the white box past buyers are increasingly picking products that are physically attractive.

Good quality, brands continue to be an important indicator of quality.

Out of box experience, products that are simple to set up and use will generally do better, and be returned less often, then those that are not.

Forward looking, buyers are becoming more competent (or our gaining more access to competent resources) and choosing products that have enhanced premature obsolescence protection.

Q5: What do you view as some exciting technologies on the high definition horizon?

Rob: Dual Core, this will allow platforms to handle an increasing number of tasks like play music in one room while playing a movie into another.

Multi-Cast from Cell phones to hand held computers to wireless flat panel displays we are gaining the capability to move what is on the HD computer to a multitude of devices in an increasing verity of locations.

True Wireless, the combination of Bluetooth and UWB and the advent 802.11 a/n provide an opportunity to eliminate all but the power cord and go truly wireless.

Centralized services that protect, updated, and manage the HD computer as part of a long term service plan which likely will include content is clearly on the horizon.

Longhorn, from massive improvements to search to true instant on, to a massive new capability to back up and restore the full system image, Longhorn will bring massive improvement to the platform.